Forecast Analyst

Company: Family Dollar Stores
Location: Charlotte, NC
Web: www.familydollar.com

General Summary:
The Forecast Analyst is primarily responsible for generating, analyzing, and interpreting sales demand forecasts for variety of functional areas including, Merchandise Financial Planning (MFP), Assortment Planning (AP), and Replenishment (RDF). These forecasts are integrated into each functional area through solutions and business processes to assist the financial planner, merchant, and replenishment buyer with creating sales ($/U) plans and inventory orders. Accuracy of the sales demand forecast provided by the Forecast Analyst is a critical component to developing valuable plans and efficient inventory orders. The degree of forecast accuracy can influence financial performance with regards to Sales $, Inventory Turns, and Service Level.

Principal Duties & Responsibilities:

• Support the Replenishment demand forecasting process through RDF for all new and continued basic schematic skus. This process requires both technical and business application knowledge of the following forecast models; exponential smoothing, regression, and bayesian forecasting models. Additionally, the Forecast Analyst will need to know how to navigate the various workbooks and user interface of the Retail Demand Forecasting solution (RDF) in order to create, update, and review required forecast parameters. This position is ultimately responsible for the weekly sku dc sales forecasts that are provided to the Replenishment team for review, adjustments, and approval. The resulting forecasts are utilized to calculate supplier inventory orders.
  • Specific RDF Duties include but are not limited too; creating new and continued sku forecasts, updating seasonal profiles, preprocessing historical sales issues, setting up auto-build forecast approval workbooks for the replenishment team, establishing and managing forecast exception thresholds (alerts) for the "Approval by Alert" process, correcting system forecast exceptions, generating periodic forecast accuracy reports to publish to the Replenishment team on both system and replenishment buyer performance, as well as responding to forecast inquiries from the Replenishment group via the "Forecast Request" mailbox.
• Support the SAS AP demand forecasting process through SAS STAT for all new, dropped, and continued basic schematic skus. This process requires both technical and business application knowledge of the following forecast models; exponential smoothing, regression, mixed models, and ARIMA models. The Forecast Analyst will need to know how to execute and manage the required SAS programs in order to generate forecasts for SAS AP; this requires a thorough understanding of the SAS programming language and procedures (proc statements). This position is ultimately responsible for the weekly/monthly sku cluster sales forecasts that are provided to the AP/Merchandising teams for review, adjustments, and approval. The resulting forecasts are utilized to generate assortment demand plans for Sales, Margin, and Inventory Receipts.
  • Specific SAS STAT Duties include but are not limited too; creating new, dropped, and continued sku forecasts, updating seasonal profiles, preprocessing historical sales issues, establishing and managing forecast exception thresholds, correcting system forecast exceptions, generating periodic forecast accuracy reports to publish to the AP/Merchandising teams on both system and merchant performance, as well as responding to forecast inquiries from the AP/Merchandising group via the "Forecast Request" mailbox.
• Support the SAS MFP demand forecasting process through SAS STAT for all classes and product season groups. This process requires both technical and business application knowledge of the following forecast models; exponential smoothing, regression, mixed models, and ARIMA models. The Forecast Analyst will need to know how to execute and manage the required SAS programs in order to generate forecasts for SAS MFP; this requires a thorough understanding of the SAS programming language and procedures (proc statements). This position is ultimately responsible for the weekly/monthly/quarterly/half and fiscal year sales forecasts that are provided to the MFP/Planning teams for review, adjustments, and approval. The resulting forecasts are utilized to generate merchandise financial demand plans for Sales, Margin, Receipts, and EOP Inventory.
  • Specific SAS STAT Duties include but are not limited too; creating forecasts for all class/product season groups, updating seasonal profiles, preprocessing historical sales issues, establishing and managing forecast exception thresholds, correcting system forecast exceptions, generating periodic forecast accuracy reports to publish to the MFP/Planning teams on both system and planner performance, as well as responding to forecast inquiries from the MFP/Planning group via the "Forecast Request" mailbox.
• Support the Distribution demand forecasting process through SAS STAT for all nine distribution centers. This process requires both technical and business application knowledge of the following forecast models; linear regression and generalized mixed models. The Forecast Analyst will be responsible for updating and evaluating monthly receipt / ship case forecasts. This requires a strong working knowledge of the operations within Distribution, specifically as it relates to mix of product, packing type, and volume of shipments. The resulting forecasts are utilized as an input to the payroll allocations and fiscal budgeting process
• In addition, the Forecast Analyst will be responsible for embracing Family Dollar's store-centric commitment to customers, customer service and sales.

Education: B.A. or B.S. degree in Math, Statistics, Economics, or equivalent work experience; time-series demand forecasting or predictive modeling background required

Experience:

• 2-3 years of applicable retail exposure (store and/or corporate) with 1-2 years of supply chain and merchandising experience.
• Minimum 1 year SAS experience preferred with 1-2 years of exposure to relational databases.

General Skills:

• Excellent written and verbal communication skills, with an ability to appropriately tailor content to different levels of the organization
• Ability to develop partnerships through cross-functionally collaboration
• Self-motivated and team oriented
• Ability to work in a fast paced and continuously evolving environment
• Ability to interpret technical and quantitative forecast models into meaning content that the business can consume