How Obama 2012 campaign mastered analytics of persuasion
Analytics expert Eric Siegel opens a window on the new marketing technologies of persuasion modeling and predictive analytics successfully used in the Obama re-election campaign.
Truth Out, 22 January 2013, by Eric Siegel
Last October, a colleague and I speculated on how a special, powerful form of predictive analytics would revolutionize presidential campaigning - and, if successful, how it might be poorly received by the public thereafter. In our work, he and I focus more on financial, marketing and online applications of this technology. But we had bet the story would not break within politics until the years 2016 or 2020.
Surprise: There's no wait! Since Obama's win in November, we've learned they already did this.
But you may be surprised to know what the Obama campaign analytics team predicted. In this persuasion project, they did not predict:
- Who would vote Obama
- Who would vote Romney
- Who would turn out to vote at all
... and they didn't even predict:
- Who was "undecided"
Instead, they predicted persuasion:
- Who would be convinced to vote Obama if (and only if) contacted
Gregory PS: This article by a leading analytics expert and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel is an excellent example of use of uplift modeling , one of the hottest predictive analytics methods of the last few years.