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SciCast Crowdsourcing search for Malaysian Air Flight MH370


Where will the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found and what happened to it? Scientific crowdsourcing site SciCast has some predictions.



By Gregory Piatetsky, Mar 15, 2014.

The mystery of what happened to Malaysian Air flight 370 is still unresolved - latest NY Times report Search for Malaysian Jet Becomes Criminal Inquiry (Mar 16, 2014) suggests that the plane had been deliberately diverted from its planned route a week ago from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 path

Can crowdsourcing help find the missing plane ?

SciCast SciCast, a scientific crowdsourcing platform, has 2 questions:

Where will the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found?

Answers, as of March 15, 2014:
  • Region A (Gulf/South China Sea), 9% Chance
  • Region B (Malaysia), 4% Chance
  • Region C (Strait of Malacca), 7% Chance
  • Region D (NW Strait/Andaman Sea), 13% Chance
  • Region E (Gulf outside search region), 7% Chance
  • Region F (Andaman outside search region), 10% Chance
  • G: Elsewhere or not found by 30-JUN-14., 51% Chance

 
What happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370?
  • Aircraft failure, 12% Chance
  • Pilot error/incapacitation, 5% Chance
  • Deliberate diversion, 53% Chance (version given by Malaysian PM)
  • Onboard bomb, 6% Chance
  • Shot down, 5% Chance
  • Other/unresolved, 20% Chance

 
Try your prediction skills in this or other challenges at

https://scicast.org/#!/search/mh370?routeSort=question.settlement_at_sort

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