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How to Rank 10% in Your First Kaggle Competition


 
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This post presents a pathway to achieving success in Kaggle competitions as a beginner. The path generalizes beyond competitions, however. Read on for insight into succeeding while approaching any data science project.



Outlier

Outlier Example

The plot shows some scaled coordinates data. We can see that there are some outliers in the top-right corner. Exclude them and the distribution looks good.

Dummy Variables

For categorical variables, a common practice is One-hot Encoding. For a categorical variable with n possible values, we create a group of n dummy variables. Suppose a record in the data takes one value for this variable, then the corresponding dummy variable is set to 1 while other dummies in the same group are all set to 0.

Dummies Example

In this example, we transform DayOfWeek into 7 dummy variables.

Note that when the categorical variable can take many values (hundreds or more), this might not work well. It’s difficult to find a general solution to that, but I’ll discuss one scenario in the next section.

Feature Engineering

Some describe the essence of Kaggle competitions as feature engineering supplemented by model tuning and ensemble learning. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. Feature engineering gets your very far. Yet it is how well you know about the domain of given data that decides how far you can go. For example, in a competition where data is mainly consisted of texts, Natural Language Processing teachniques are a must. The approach of constructing useful features is something we all have to continuously learn in order to do better.

Basically, when you feel that a variable is intuitively useful for the task, you can include it as a feature. But how do you know it actually works? The simplest way is to plot it against the target variable like this:

Checking Feature Validity

Feature Selection

Generally speaking, we should try to craft as many features as we can and have faith in the model’s ability to pick up the most significant features. Yet there’s still something to gain from feature selection beforehand:

  • Less features mean faster training
  • Some features are linearly related to others. This might put a strain on the model.
  • By picking up the most important features, we can use interactions between them as new features. Sometimes this gives surprising improvement.

The simplest way to inspect feature importance is by fitting a random forest model. There are more robust feature selection algorithms (e.g. this) which are theoretically superior but not practicable due to the absence of efficient implementation. You can combat noisy data (to an extent) simply by increasing number of trees used in a random forest.

This is important for competitions in which data is anonymized because you won’t waste time trying to figure out the meaning of a variable that’s of no significance.

Feature Encoding

Sometimes raw features have to be converted to some other formats for them to work properly.

For example, suppose we have a categorical variable which can take more than 10K different values. Then naively creating dummy variables is not a feasible option. An acceptable solution is to create dummy variables for only a subset of the values (e.g. values that constitute 95% of the feature importance) and assign everything else to an ‘others’ class.

Updated on Oct 28th, 2016: For the scenario described above, another possible solution is to use Factorized Machines. Please refer to this post by Kaggle user “idle_speculation” for details.

Model Selection

When the features are set, we can start training models. Kaggle competitions usually favortree-based models:

  • Gradient Boosted Trees
  • Random Forest
  • Extra Randomized Trees

The following models are slightly worse in terms of general performance, but are suitable as base models in ensemble learning (will be discussed later):

  • SVM
  • Linear Regression
  • Logistic Regression
  • Neural Networks

Note that this does not apply to computer vision competitions which are pretty much dominated by neural network models.

All these models are implemented in Sklearn.

Here I want to emphasize the greatness of Xgboost. The outstanding performance of gradient boosted trees and Xgboost’s efficient implementation makes it very popular in Kaggle competitions. Nowadays almost every winner uses Xgboost in one way or another.

Updated on Oct 28th, 2016: Recently Microsoft open sourced LightGBM, a potentially better library than Xgboost for gradient boosting.

By the way, for Windows users installing Xgboost could be a painstaking process. You can refer to this post by me if you run into problems.


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