GuideOne: Lead Predictive Modeler

Responsible for advancing the use of predictive models and analytics, project management, planning and delivering predictive models and statistical analysis.

GuideOne Company: GuideOne
Location: West Des Moines, IA

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GuideOne Insurance is a nationally recognized Property and Casualty Insurance company that provides insurance to houses of worship, senior living communities and educational institutions. We also offer homeowners, personal auto and renters insurance.

We are currently seeking an experienced modeler to serve as Lead Predictive Modeler in our Actuarial department. This role is that of a working manager who will be responsible for advancing the use of predictive models and analytics at GuideOne, as well as leading others in project management, planning and delivering predictive models and statistical analysis to address a variety of business applications to support GuideOne's strategic vision.

This position will coordinate with and peer review the work of other modelers, document and communicate results of the analysis, and securing the buy-in of various stakeholders. This role requires an in-depth knowledge of statistical methods and practices and a working knowledge of actuarial methods and practices. The Lead Predictive Modeler must be a relationship builder and build relationships with senior level leaders and stakeholders on projects.


30% of time: Retrieves, compiles and manipulates data from a variety of internal and external sources to support predictive models and related reporting. Researches and understands the content of the datasets used. Responsible for suitability and accuracy of data. Performs reasonableness checks on data for anomalies and errors.

30% of time: Run predictive models, namely GLM/regression models, for a variety of applications: pricing, marketing, claims, fraud, etc. Use advanced statistical techniques including those used in software packages such as Emblem to analyze a variety of actuarial or business topics such as pricing structures, loss experience, reserving, financial planning, product development, renewal rating, product implementation, market research, expense planning, claim management including fraud detection, and marketing support.

10% of time: Explains model findings, formulates conclusions, and delivers recommendations as directed. Understands customer's needs and concerns and addresses them. Provides Provide demonstrable evidence of a model's predictive power and documentation of the analysis leading to it and provides supporting documentation of analysis. Identifies and investigates unreasonable results including possible alternatives. Supports implementation of model results with end users.

10% of time: Completes research projects within the timeframes specified. Adapts project work to the needs of stakeholders. Formulates and conducts research in an organized fashion and in accordance with acceptable statistical modeling methods. Submits work for internal peer review and peer reviews work from other modeling staff.

10% of time: Continues to expand statistical modeling knowledge and methods through training and educational opportunities; keeps abreast of current industry practices; recommends new statistical methods and approaches to strengthen the modeling analytics; tests new methods against current practices in the course of project work.

10% of time: Lead and directs others' work. Researches and recommends changes in modeling techniques and practices with an eye towards advancing the work of others. Coaches and trains less experienced staff in modeling best practices. Peer reviews the work of other modeling analysts and interacts with other departments on their business needs.

  • Bachelor's degree in actuarial science, mathematics, statistics, computer science or related field or equivalent experience. Masters degree in statistics with an emphasis on practical applications is preferred or equivalent relevant experience.
  • High level of experience in statistical methodologies and computer modeling including methods such as multivariate analysis techniques.
  • 5+ years of experience in multivariate predictive modeling; similar experience manipulating large datasets.

  • Actuarial exams and credentials are helpful, but not required
  • Experience presenting and interacting with high level leaders is expected
  • Project Management experience is helpful
  • Prioritize work assignments; plan, organize and complete work within established timeframes; also exhibit flexibility to accommodate changes in priorities; potentially work on multiple projects simultaneously
  • Non-linear Modeling (decision tree, neural nets, and spatial analysis) preferred.
  • Excellent understanding of insurance, products, terminology, operations and issues within control of their own area. Requires moderate broad-based business knowledge.
  • Software proficiency with:
    • Statistical Analysis packages like Emblem, R, or SAS
    • MS Office products: Excel, Access, Word, PPT
    • Programing languages: SAS or SQL

  • Ability to communicate technical, modeling issues to non-technical audiences
  • Ability to apply analytics in a collaborative effort across functional areas
  • Knowledge of insurance and experience with non-linear modeling approaches are a plus