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Features

From: Gregory Piatetsky-Shapiro
Date: Nov 3, 2004
Subject: Poll Results: Bush vs Kerry results and analysis

While KDnuggets readers overwhelmingly preferred Kerry over Bush -- almost 63% for US people, and almost 90% for non-US, the US voters have made a different choice.

Here are Bush vs Kerry Poll results.

The election also provided an instructive lesson in basing predictions on external associations which are due to chance. For example, Washington Redskins football games were a perfect predictor of US presidentail elections from 1936 to 2000. If the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House and vice versa. Well, the Redskins lost their October 31 game but Bush won the White house.

As any Red Sox fan knows, associations of sports results with victories or defeats, even if valid for many years, can suddenly come to an end.

On the other hand, predictions made by people actually betting their money were more accurate. Both Betfair, a UK betting site and Iowa Electronic Markets correctly predicted Bush victory.


KDnuggets : News : 2004 : n21 : item1 NEXT >

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