KDnuggets : News : 2008 : n02 : item21 < PREVIOUS | NEXT >

Briefs

Prediction Markets at Google

At Google, employees are encouraged to go online and place bets on a prediction market -- an exchange that tries to forecast events based on the money wagered on a particular outcome.

John Battelle comments on The New York Times article Google’s Lunchtime Betting Game

Prediction markets have been used for years to predict things like elections. At Google, they are used, of course, for business. In the last two and a half years, 1,463 employees have made wagers with play money (Goobles, as in rubles) on questions like: will Google open a Russia office? will Apple release an Intel-based Mac? how many users will Gmail have at the end of the quarter?

The pay off:

According to the report, "Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google", which was presented Friday at the American Economic Association meeting in New Orleans, the strongest correlation in betting was found among people who sat very close to one another, trumping even friendship or other close social ties.

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KDnuggets : News : 2008 : n02 : item21 < PREVIOUS | NEXT >

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