Publications

Scott Clendaniel article "Mining Web Data: Avoiding the Path to Red Ink"
was published in PC AI in Sep/Oct 2002 issue.

Here is an excerpt:

Many companies now have web sites that generate customer data by the
gigabyte. The application of "web mining" to find patterns in that
information has created a very dangerous by-product: red ink.  This
article describes how the well intentioned focus on customer response
rates and similar dependent variables may cause devastating reductions
in profitability instead of increasing earnings.  The reasons for this
problem, as well as a step-by-step method to avoid repeating it, are
not as mysterious as they might seem. By following same basic
procedures, both contract data miners and internal modelers will gain
a much higher likelihood of success.

...

Two driving factors make web-mining more roblematic.  The first
element is the advent of "Internet time."  This simply means that
programs can be deployed and expanded much faster than traditional
efforts. Speed means that small errors can lead to devastating
results, and many times faster than the enterprise can respond.
Second, web offers can be scaled to very large efforts at a relatively
low cost.  For example, email campaigns with a link to the company's
site can be deployed with far less cost in most instances than sending
out expensive catalogs. These more efficient campaigns don't face the
usual corporate speed checkpoints that would call for careful analysis
before scaling up to costly deployments.  Whether one or both factors
are at fault, the result is the same.  A poorly designed web-based
promotion enhanced by advanced predictive modeling can quickly
devastate a company's earnings.  The reason: elusive pitfalls related
to web-based promotions can actually cause losses at alarming pace.
When the flawed programs are targeted with the power of web mining,
the decline can rapidly accelerate.
...

See the full article in TMA newsletter at:
http://www.the-modeling-agency.com/news/2001q4.htm#Article2