KDnuggets : News : 2009 : n09 : item22 < PREVIOUS | NEXT >


Subject: Predicting Flu With the Aid of (George) Washington

NY Times, By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. May 3, 2009

The best way to track the spread of swine flu across the United States in the coming weeks may be to imagine it riding a dollar bill.

The routes taken by millions of them are at the core of a computer model at Northwestern University that is predicting the epidemic’s future. Reassuringly, it foresees only about 2,000 cases by the end of this month, mostly in New York, Los Angeles, Miami and Houston.


Such models are too new to have established a track record, but last week two separate teams - the one at Northwestern and a friendly rival at Indiana University, using different algorithms - both made predictions that matched almost exactly: flu from Mexico, if left utterly unchecked, would infect only 2,000 to 2,500 people in the United States in four weeks.

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KDnuggets : News : 2009 : n09 : item22 < PREVIOUS | NEXT >

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