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The previous KDnuggets Poll asked:

When will 10% improvement over the baseline, required for Netflix Grand Prize, be reached?

Almost a third think that it will never be reached.

Of the remainder, the median estimate when Netflix Grand Prize level will be reached is Mar-Apr 2007.

Here are full results for KDnuggets Poll When Will Netflix Grand Prize Level Be Reached.

Interestingly, despite the pessimism of a third of respondents, the seemingly unreachable threshold of 5 percent improvement was achieved last week by 3 teams, almost on the same day.

See http://www.netflixprize.com/leaderboard

Did they all simultaneously discover how to do better or were they holding back their best results before?