Poll

Is Ray Fair economic model a good way to predict US elections? [64 votes total] Yes (8) 13% May be (20) 31% No (36) 56%

Comments

Dave DeBarr, Evaluation of Ray Fair's Model
I am not convinced that Ray Fair's model generalizes! He has simply fitted the model to the data; e.g. plugging the last 22 observations from Appendix A from Ray Fair paper into R...
summary(lm(read.table('vote.dat')));

Peter, concept drift
now this looks like a domain to me where concept drift may play a major role :)

Gunnar, Is Fair's economic model a good predictor
Paraphrasing... it depends on what the definition of "is" is.
Do economy, party, and incumbency affect the outcome of elections, and can that influence be (partly) captured in an equation like Fair's? Yes.
Is that the whole story? Absolutely not.

Editor, Predicting US Presidential elections
Yale economist Ray C. Fair has developed a regression model that uses several economic variables to predict US presidential elections with good accuracy.
Is this a good way to predict an election ?