Briefs

Futurist (06/03) Vol. 37, No. 3, P. 18; Bell, James John

Exponential technological development is expected to lead to the Singularity, a point where the results of technological change will become impossible to predict; the projected signs of the Singularity range from the integration of biological and non-biological systems to the surpassing of human intelligence by machine intelligence to self-replicating, atomic-scale machines. Author and inventor Ray Kurzweil and Sun Microsystems chief scientist Bill Joy agree that the human race will stand on the threshold of the Singularity around 2030, when three-dimensional computing--a physical interface between humans and computers--becomes possible.

Scientists also think that the Singularity could come about through advancements in the fields of artificial intelligence or nanotechnology, while other researchers expect breakthroughs in quantum and molecular computing will generate new scientific standards that send exponential technological progress into overdrive. Bill Joy, for one, has said the seeds of "knowledge-enabled mass destruction" are being planted by the unchecked, mostly corporate development in self-replicating genetics, nanotech, and robots (GNR).

There is a 30 percent to 50 percent chance that humanity may no longer exist by the time the Singularity is expected to arrive, given the current rate of technological progress and the global capitalist system, according to Joy. The military is also supporting the development and integration of autonomous, biotechnological, and human-robotic systems into its infrastructure, which could have even more devastating consequences than a nuclear exchange. The potential environmental ramifications of GNR technologies, as well as worries about the Singularity's effects, are largely absent from discussions in the United States. However, there are Singularity advocates who believe the acceleration of technological change will add, in the words of extropian activist Natasha Vita-More, "a new richness to the human landscape never before known."