Publications

Paul Gearan, Rexer Analytics

The surfeit of discussion about how teams should best utilize their relative position in the draft begs the question: what do historical trends tell us about the probability of successful outcomes given even broad parameters? Obviously it still comes down to the evaluation of the individual, but even broadly, are there types of players who tend to do better than others? What is the wisdom of moving down and for what purpose? What have been some of the biggest errors made and who has made them? What can an analysis of player outcomes tell us about these and other issues?

Method of Analysis:

Five hundred seventy-six (576) players drafted in the first round from 1980 to 2001 (22 drafts) were assessed for their "5-year outcomes" (i.e. what kind of player were they by their fifth year in the league). Five years was selected because it was a long enough time frame to allow for a reasonable evaluation of most players. A handful of players became bigger stars later -- Steve Nash and Jermaine O'Neal for example -- but for most the 5-year mark was a solid indicator on long-term NBA performance.

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