Briefs

By Nelson Lardner, December 18, 2006.

It was recently observed by a regular poster on a gaming website that the two most recent winners of the late, lamented Stardust Invitational (Football) Handicapping Contest were and are two of the more successful public situational handicappers/data-miners in the business. That would be Big Al McMordie (who won the penultimate edition of the revered contest) in 2004, and Marc Lawrence (who snared the last roundup) in '05.

I don't believe this is a coincidence. In my mind, the path to consistently successful football evaluations vis-a-vis the pointspread has long been via sophisticated technical/situational analysis. Most opening college and pro football numbers are fundamental reads, shaded by situational knowledge to which most linemakers are privy. Given that fact, pure fundamental handicapping, relying solely on visual evidence, game statistics and resulting raw power ratings, is a tough row to hoe, and in our mind, a long-term losing proposition under modern market conditions.

To put it bluntly, practitioners of the situational/data-base brand of analysis have stolen the show, and don't figure to give it back anytime soon.

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Here is Part 2: December-21-2006, Situational Analysis - Precision Data-Mining and Modern Football (Part II)...By Nelson Lardner

In Part I, I took pains to delineate the gradual development of the modern school of football-handicapping thought that ranges well beyond simplistic power-rating/home-field-advantage comparisons, and injury-report chasing. It's undeniable that such practitioners as the aforementioned Al McMordie, Marc Lawrence, Dr. Bob (Stoll) and Scott Kellen are market forces, to varying degrees. Large portions of their significant customer bases hang on their every pronouncement, as these operatives wield a tangible influence on quoted numbers at many a major outlet. These fiscal power displays indicate that one or more of these fellows has accomplished something over the years so as to attract loyal audiences of evident means.

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