UK Ministry of Justice Chooses IBM SPSS Predictive Analytics

Turns to Business Analytics to Analyse 4 Million Prisoner Records to Predict the Likelihood of Prisoners Re-Offending

The UK Ministry of Justice is using predictive analytics technology from SPSS, an IBM Company, to assess the likelihood of prisoners re-offending on their release and to ultimately help improve public safety.

One of the UK's largest government departments with more than 95,000 employees and a budget of �9.2 billion, the Ministry of Justice is using predictive analytics to assess the data held within its Offender Assessment System (OASys). In addition, the analysis is helping the Ministry of Justice develop treatment targets for prisoners throughout their sentence to reduce the probability they will commit crimes upon their release.

The OASys system is used across approximately 140 prisons and all probation areas in England and Wales, and records information from over 3.4 million prisoner assessments. This includes data on individual offender circumstances such as accommodation, education, relationships, financial management and income, lifestyle and associates, drug and alcohol misuse, emotional well-being, behaviour and attitudes.

These records are being used for quantitative analysis which can identify patterns within the data. The resulting intelligence forms the basis for improved measurements of offender risk and need. Both the OASys Violence Predictor and OASys General Re-offending Predictor have helped to substantially improve predictions about re-offending. In the case of violent crime, the prediction about re-offending has improved from 68 to 74 per cent whilst the prediction about re-offending in terms of general offences improved from 76 to 80 per cent.

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