Podcast: The 'Decline Effect' and Scientific Truth

Surprising and exciting scientific findings capture our attention and captivate the press. But what if, at some point after a finding has been soundly established, it starts to disappear? In a special collaboration with Radiolab we look at the 'decline effect' when more data tells us less about scientific truth. (17m 34s)

Listen to the podcast at

www.radiolab.org/blogs/radiolab-blog/2011/may/03/cosmic-habituation/

For a transcript, see www.onthemedia.org/transcripts/2011/05/13/04

Comments:

Gregory Piatetsky
See also this Wiki on the decline effect
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_Effect

Gregory Piatetsky
Here is a great article in New Yorker on Decline Effect
www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer

It looks like a tip of the iceberg that can crash much of recent "soft science" analysis, based on small samples and many variables, typical in psychology, medicine, social studies ...

Gregory Piatetsky
The "Decline effect' seems to be a clear case of overfitting in the original data analysis