Prev
Much has been written on building predictive models, but this summary by Tom Breur is very clear and concise. Gregory PS, Editor
Tom Breur, XLNT Consulting, Netherlands
1. Make Sure You Understand The Modeling Objective
Before you begin the actual modeling work, make sure you truly understand the business process(es) in place that you are supposed to support. How will the model be deployed? How will the business then be better of using the model? ...
2. Get A Feel For Your Data
After you've achieved clarity on the modeling objective, hold your horses for another moment. ...
3. Habitually Compare A Range Of Algorithms Don't become a "one trick pony." ...
4. Split Your Mining Set Three Ways For A Valid "Accuracy Prediction"
5. When A Model Looks Too Good To Be True, It Usually Is... ... The variables used to make the prediction should be independent of response, and should have been captured at a point in time preceding the target variable you are trying to predict. ...
6. Customarily Plot Predictor Variables (Univariate) Against Target Variable
As a safety measure against "leakers" or "anachronistic variables" it is good practice to habitually plot predictor variables against the target. ...
8. Two-Stage Models Give Higher Yield, Albeit Lower Response
When you are predicting an amount that customers should deposit, the lifetime value of customers you are trying to acquire, or how much people will donate to charity, etc., you have a two-stage process. First you need to predict who will respond, and then you estimate how much.
9. Always, Always Include An Explanation With Your Prediction
...
10. Model Engineering Is Fine Art
...
Read the full post at
www.xlntconsulting.com/newsletter-archive/how-to-build-predictive-models-november-2010.htm