Like weather forecasting, data mining can predict major storms but not where each raindrop will fall
ComputerWorld, By Jaikumar Vijayan, May 5, 2010
Computerworld - Saturday's botched bombing attempt in New York City provides an example of why the use of data mining approaches to uncover potential terrorism plots is a little like weather forecasting.
"You definitely need to do it, because it gives you warning of major storms," said John Pescatore, an analyst with Gartner Inc. and a former analyst with the National Security Agency. "But it's not going to tell you about individual raindrops."
That fact is likely to provide more fodder for those who question the effectiveness of using data mining approaches to uncover and forecast terror plots. Since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, the federal government has spent tens of millions of dollars on data mining programs and behavioral surveillance technologies that are being used by several agencies to identify potential terrorists.
The tools work by searching through mountains of data in large databases for unusual patterns of activity, which are then used to predict future behavior. The data is often culled from dozens of sources, including commercial and government databases, and meshed together to see what kind of patterns emerge.
In January 2007, there were nearly 200 data mining programs planned or already operating throughout the federal government. Among them were the Automated Targeting System at the DHS for assigning "terror scores" to U.S. citizens and the Transportation Security Administration's Secure Flight program analyzing data about airline passengers. The FBI has several data mining initiatives under way, including some that target terrorists.