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The previous KDnuggets Poll asked: Who will win 2010 FIFA World Cup?
KDnuggets readers were better fans than predictors, since only 17% correctly predicted Spain as the eventual winner of the FIFA World Cup.
Better predictions were given by fivethirtyeight.com / ESPN, which as of July 3, 2010 (Quarter-final stage) correctly had Spain and Nederlands winning semifinals, and Spain ultimately winning.
Data mining and bayesian forecasting was beaten by
"Paul", the German Octopus
who correctly predicted all games by Germany and the
World Cup Final victory for Spain.
There is now even an iPhone app for asking "Paul" for other predictions.
(Of course, "Paul" was just lucky, but his example illustrates the human tendency of looking for "magic" predictors. Editor)