Statistics can help avoid counterfeit goods on eBay

Statistics Can Help Us Avoid Counterfeit Goods on the Internet, Study Shows

Consumers need to know the true perils of purchasing artwork or luxury goods on the Internet, say statisticians in a paper published in Significance, the magazine of the Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Association.

... In the study the accuracy of the descriptions of artwork by Henry Moore offered on eBay were examined over a period of eighteen months. Two expert evaluators classified the artworks independently, with a third evaluator collecting the data and sending it to them separately. Adapting an established statistical method used to evaluate the accuracy of classifications in medicine and social science, the authors were able to estimate the percentage of artworks which were misrepresented.

The results of the study showed that over 80% of the small sculptures and drawings indicated by eBay sellers as by Henry Moore were in fact not genuine, while over 90% of the signed prints were genuine. "This method should be useful in assessing the reliability of descriptions of works by other artists, as well as some luxury goods," said Professor Gastwirth. "It may also prove useful in the application of statistics in legal cases concerning infringement, as it can be used as a first step in determining the percentage of goods of a certain type that are counterfeit."

"Dare you Buy a Henry Moore on E-bay?" , Gastwirth J L, Johnson W; Significance; March 2011.

The full study will be published in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society): "Estimating the fraction of 'non-genuine' artwork by Henry Moore for sale on eBay: application of latent class screening test methodology" Gastwirth J L, Johnson W and Hikawa H.; J.R.Statist.Soc.A; July 2011 174, Part 4 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00682.x

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