Designing a better crystal ball

National crowdsourcing project to better predict world events

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Wake Forest U. News, by Cheryl Walker, July 27, 2011
A new model for crowdsourcing predictions called Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) is transforming the way future events are forecast - combining the collective knowledge of many individual opinions in a unique way that improves accuracy beyond what any one person or small group of experts could provide.

Intelligence agencies have historically relied on experienced specialists to provide forecasts on world events. ACES recruits everyday citizens as research participants to help improve the accuracy of forecasting methods for intelligence analysis.

Sponsored by IARPA, an activity within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, built by Applied Research Associates and supported by a team of academic partners such as Wake Forest University, ACES allows volunteer participants online to identify topics of interest, engage with other experts and compete to make the best predictions.

With the goal of creating a more powerful "prediction engine," for forecasting everything from the price of gas in the U.S. to the nuclear capabilities of Iran, Stone's research team is looking for individuals to contribute their knowledge in topic areas such as politics, the military, economics, science and technology, and social affairs.

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