Salil is a top-selling mathematics and statistics book author. Academic statistician, C-suite advisor, and risk strategist.
Salil has nearly 19 years of experience, of which a dozen years were on Wall Street, performing proprietary trading and economic research for firms such as Salomon/Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. He also served 2 years as the group Director of Analytics, in the US Dept of Treasury for the Administration's $700 billion TARP program. He is an adjunct professor in statistics and analytics at Georgetown.
We often look back at the past year and an overall history of rare events, and try to then extrapolate future odds of the same rare event, based on that. We illustrate here, that rare past events have no usefulness in understanding the rarity of the same events in the future!
The terrorism threat advisory system was designed to give the public prior warning to when terrorist plots are about to unfold. However, the analysis shows that this system is not more helpful than monkey throwing a dart.